Emission factor trends — new zealand

Global emission factor trends that apply across geographies — business travel, freight, materials, and spend-based factors.

• Utilities · kWh

  Decarbonisation of the electricity grid — new zealand (location-based)

  New Zealand is committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 [MBIE]. A critical driver of this target is the official ambition to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2030, scaling up from roughly 90% today, while simultaneously expanding capacity to meet a projected 60% growth in electricity demand by 2050. MBIE's Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS 2024) modelled five different economic scenarios out to 2050. They forecast that the renewable share of generation will grow from roughly 90% today to between 96.2% and 98.3% by 2050. Crucially, MBIE concluded that to manage winter peaks and dry-year risks, "new gas peakers are required to provide firming in all scenarios." This implies the emission factor will drop significantly but will not hit an absolute mathematical zero.

• Utilities · kWh

  Decarbonisation of the electricity grid — new zealand (market-based)

  New Zealand aims for a 100% renewable electricity grid by 2030. However, the country's heavy reliance on hydro generation causes significant year-to-year volatility in emissions due to "dry year" weather patterns requiring fossil-fuel backup. Concurrently, a growing voluntary REC market (NZECS and I-REC) allows corporations to claim renewable generation, which strips green attributes from the remaining residual grid mix. In a conservative scenario, the market-based (residual) factor remains volatile and elevated as corporate REC purchases concentrate fossil emissions into the remaining grid mix. An aggressive scenario projects a rapid drop to near zero by 2030 as the physical grid fully phases out fossil fuels, eliminating residual grid emissions entirely.

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